UFC 322 Betting Preview: Della Maddalena vs Makhachev, Shevchenko vs Zhang & Best Bets

By MMA Futures Staff – November 15, 2025

UFC 322 hits Madison Square Garden tonight with one of the most loaded cards of the year. Jack Della Maddalena defends his welterweight title against Islam Makhachev in the main event, while Valentina Shevchenko puts her flyweight belt on the line against Zhang Weili in the co-main. It’s champ vs. champ in both title fights, and the rest of the card is stacked with contenders trying to punch their ticket to a title shot.

Below, we break down the key matchups, what’s on the line for each fighter, and our favorite betting angles with current odds. We’ll wrap with a three-fight parlay for fans who want a high-upside sweat on fight night.

Main Event: Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev
UFC Welterweight Championship

The main event is a classic striker vs. grappler super-fight. Welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena brings some of the cleanest boxing in the sport and an 18–2 record into his first title defense at MSG. Former lightweight king Islam Makhachev moves up after four successful title defenses at 155, riding a 15-fight win streak and looking to become a two-division champion.

Della Maddalena tends to build momentum as fights go on, using angles, tight combinations and body shots to break opponents down. Makhachev’s game is built around suffocating top pressure, chain wrestling and positional dominance, with enough striking to safely enter his grappling ranges.

What’s at stake

• Della Maddalena: A win over Makhachev would instantly push him into the pound-for-pound elite and cement him as the guy at 170 after taking the belt from Belal Muhammad.
• Makhachev: Victory at MSG makes him a two-division champion and locks in his place in the “greatest of this era” conversation alongside names like Khabib, Jones and Volkanovski.

Betting angle: Islam Makhachev moneyline

Pick: Islam Makhachev ML (~-285)

Most books have Makhachev in the -285 range with Della Maddalena around +230 as of fight day, reflecting the market’s respect for Islam’s wrestling and championship experience.^* The path to victory is straightforward: takedowns, top control and making Della Maddalena work off his back, where we’ve seen less of his game.

Della is absolutely live early if he can manage distance and land clean combinations, but over five rounds, Makhachev’s grappling and cardio edge are hard to ignore. For safer tickets, the moneyline is preferred over exact-method props.

Co-Main: Valentina Shevchenko vs Zhang Weili
UFC Women’s Flyweight Championship

The co-main is another champ vs. champ showdown. Reigning flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko looks for yet another defense at 125 lbs, while former two-time strawweight champion Zhang Weili moves up in search of a second belt.

Shevchenko is one of the most complete fighters in women’s MMA history: southpaw kickboxing, strong counter-wrestling, and elite composure over five rounds. Zhang brings explosive entries, cardio, and legitimate finishing power, especially in the pocket and in scrambles.

What’s at stake

• Shevchenko: A win over another champion-level opponent further strengthens her GOAT resume and keeps her as the anchor of the flyweight division.
• Zhang: If she pulls this off, she becomes a two-division champion and one of the most decorated fighters in UFC history, especially for the Asian market.

Betting angle: Valentina Shevchenko by decision

Pick: Valentina Shevchenko by decision (~+120)

Shevchenko sits around -145 on the moneyline with Zhang at roughly +120. Books are also pricing Shevchenko by decision near +120 and by KO/Sub at much longer numbers.^*

Given both fighters’ durability and the level of respect they’ll show each other early, a five-round technical battle is the most likely script. Shevchenko’s edge in range management, counters and minute-winning over the full 25 minutes make the decision prop an attractive way to get plus money on the favorite.

Feature Fight: Sean Brady vs Michael Morales
Welterweight Contenders

On the main card, Sean Brady meets undefeated prospect Michael Morales in a high-stakes welterweight clash. Brady is a top-5 grinder with elite grappling who’s coming off a huge win over former champ Leon Edwards. Morales is a fast-rising finisher with an 18–0 record and dangerous power in all phases.

Markets have Brady as a small favorite in the -135 to -145 range, while Morales is being offered as an underdog around +115 to +120 heading into fight night.^*

Betting angle: Michael Morales KO/TKO for value

Pick: Michael Morales by KO/TKO (~+350 to +370)

Several sharp models actually project Morales as a slight favorite straight-up, and see big pricing gaps specifically on his KO/TKO prop, which is hanging in the mid +300s at some books.^* If Morales can keep this on the feet or force more chaotic exchanges, his speed and finishing power give him a very live path to an upset via knockout.

If you want to be more conservative, Morales moneyline at plus money is also a reasonable play. But for parlays and small single-unit shots, the KO/TKO line is where the real upside sits.

Main Card Wildcard: Beneil Dariush vs Benoît Saint Denis
Lightweight (Catchweight 157 lbs)

The main card opens with a banger between veteran contender Beneil Dariush and surging French finisher Benoît Saint Denis. Both men are dangerous everywhere, but the market has clearly sided with the younger fighter: Saint Denis is around -180 to -195, with Dariush coming back near +145 to +160 as fight time approaches.^*

Saint Denis brings relentless pressure, forward movement and serious finishing instincts, both on the feet and on the mat. Dariush has the deeper resume, dangerous grappling and a knack for creating chaos — but he’s also taken damage in recent losses.

Betting angle: Fight does NOT go the distance / Saint Denis ITD

Lean: Benoît Saint Denis inside the distance (ITD)

With both fighters’ aggression and durability questions on the Dariush side, an inside-the-distance angle is attractive. If you’re building multiple slips, Saint Denis ITD is a nice way to back the favorite without laying the full moneyline juice.

MMA Futures Best Bets for UFC 322

1. Islam Makhachev ML (~-285)
   Trust the championship-level grappling and five-round experience against a dangerous but still relatively untested champion at 170.
2. Valentina Shevchenko by decision (~+120)
   Shevchenko historically wins minutes with clean technique and control. Over 25 minutes, that style often leads to unanimous decisions, especially versus elite opposition like Zhang.
3. Michael Morales by KO/TKO (~+350 to +370)
   Morales is one of the better finishing prospects at welterweight, and some models have him favored outright. The KO/TKO price significantly lags his true finishing equity.

MMA Futures 3-Fight Parlay for UFC 322

If you want a single high-upside ticket for fight night, here’s our recommended three-leg parlay. This is a fun, small-stakes play — not something to anchor your entire betting night.

This combo ties together:

• A chalk anchor in Makhachev’s moneyline.
• A plus-money but logical method pick on Shevchenko in a likely technical five-round fight.
• A high-upside finisher in Morales, where the market may be undervaluing his KO equity.

Remember: parlays multiply variance. Keep your stake small and treat this as a sweat, not a bankroll strategy.

How to Watch & Final Thoughts

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs Makhachev goes down tonight at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Early prelims start at 6 p.m. ET, prelims at 8 p.m. ET and the main card kicks off at 10 p.m. ET on PPV.

Between two champ-vs-champ title fights, a pivotal welterweight showdown in Brady vs Morales, and a guaranteed scrap in Dariush vs Saint Denis, this is one of those cards that could reshape multiple divisions in a single night.

Bet responsibly. Set a budget before the first walkout, stick to it, and enjoy the chaos.